The Delphic Oracle Is On Hiatus

Way back in mid-December, the Quinnipiac University Poll, widely considered the gold standard in polls, was reporting Trump approval rates at 35% and disapproval rates at 57%. Quinnipiac hasn't done a poll since, but other subsequent polls are roughly in this range, too.

Does this mean Democrats will win the midterm elections?

Honestly, I don't know.

Most people vote from their wallets. And recently, Trump has floated two proposals in his unmedicated, late-night social media rants that, if implemented, could save these prospective voters a whole lotta bank: (1) banning private hedge funds from buying residential homes and (2) capping credit card debt at 10%.

Neither of these ideas will be implemented, I suspect. But that second one in particular is aimed straight at the populist base.

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Also, the average American taxpayer will be saving on taxes this year. The standard deduction is going up by $750 for everyone, by $1,500 if you're married filing jointly, and by $6,000 if you're over 65. The child tax credit is increasing by $200. Tip income up to $25,000 is protected from taxation; ditto $12,500 in overtime income—particularly interesting if you think of the type of workers (construction workers, nurses, first responders, HVAC workers) who typically earn overtime, i.e. highly skilled workers who, despite the mythologies surrounding them, aren't culturally respected enough to be salaried employees.

If their own taxes drop by a couple of grand, will any of these people really care that billionaires are saving a whole lot more?

I suspect not.

On the other hand, 31% of U.S. tax filers paid no federal income taxes at all. This is the segment targeted by the progressive wing of the Democratic Party because this is the segment that benefits most from cheaper housing and subsidized healthcare. So maybe progressives are on to something from a strictly strategic point of view, as well as a humanitarian point of view. I dunno. The Delphic oracle is on hiatus.



Anyway, I remained hideously depressed all day yesterday.

The gym was crowded with New Year's Resolutioners, and supermarket prices are up by at least 25%, no matter what the official inflation rate is telling you. I bought some stuff at the ShopRite next door to the Schlock office, and I swear to God, their prices were higher than the non-discount grocery store 'cause why not gauge the rubes if they're wandering into your marketing trap, right?

Considering how down I'm feeling, the Work in Progress is going remarkably well. I mean, I have no idea if the prose is any good, but (first draft, first draft, first draft), it is materializing on the page.

I'm currently writing the second of the Hospital in the Time of COVID sections. Scene has to develop relationships with Debbie Reynolds & the New Millennium Kingdom girl, and also explore Grazia's ideas of what being a Good Person entails—picking up random garbage on the street, returning shopping carts to their rightful bin, liking Lost Pet notifications on Facebook, etc, etc, etc. At some point, as she gets nuttier, Grazia will begin anthropomorphizing her relationship with the universe, such that Neal notices and becomes alarmed in the phone conversation that fades out the section.