The Iran War

[mallorys_camera]

Who's winning the Iran War?

Russia!

Trump just suspended economic sanctions 'cause the U.S. needs that Russian oil!

If anything can convince you that war in particular and nationalism in general are nothing more than a lethal playground squabble, that particular bit of info should be it. No need for sophisticated analyses. The playground bully—that would be the Trump administration—is always arbitrary when it comes to enemy lists.

Between scarcity & price gouging, gas will be $5 a gallon by the end of March, and increases in the price of fuel will be baked into every good that relies upon transportation. In the consumer price index, what goes up does not go down, so we are looking at permanent price increases.

The economy was already struggling before Trump miscalculated Iran. Revised estimates for GDP growth during the last quarter of 2025 are just .7% while January inflation was 3.1%. We are running very fast just to stand in one place.

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Is any war a "good" war?

I would say military actions undertaken to quell forms of ethnic cleansing are probably justified. Genocide should be prevented. Thus, WWII was a "good" war; ditto the 1995 NATO airstrikes that ended the Bosnian War.

But what are we looking at exactly in Iran?

I am beginning to think the Universe would be much better off without human beings.

Comments

[rebeccmeister]

I mean, someday, the Universe WILL be without human beings, right?

Also, that photo has some incredible color composition happening. Since I track these things, between last Friday and this Thursday, the river temperature at Albany went from ~31.2 °F to 41 °F. Not that I think anyone should ever try and drink that water, mind you.

Yesterday evening I wound up reading a scare piece about what's going to happen to food insecurity in the US over the next 6 months. It contained some inaccurate assumptions about exactly what the lack of fertilizer is going to do to food production for the year, but I do see some merit to understanding what can happen to communities when food insecurity escalates. Unfortunately I don't know what that means for what _I_ should be doing over the next 6 months, other than just generally trying to keep my own shit together.

[puddleshark]

In the consumer price index, what goes up does not go down...

Yeah, exactly. The UK has never managed to get inflation under control since Russia invaded Ukraine, so Trump's War is going to be another kick in the teeth for the average consumer here.

[fuzzilla]

**I am beginning to think the Universe would be much better off without human beings.**

Kinda where I'm at.

[asakiyume]

I feel like China should be the big winner from the United States' collapse. Russia is embroiled in a war of vain irredentism. China is not!

The economic consequences of the war in Iran are so directly on the administration and so hugely negative, and the whole thing is so hugely unpopular, I keep hoping the government will back-pedal. Trump is capable of looking at a disaster and calling it victory, and calling it a victory lets him stop. I'm hoping for something like that.

[mallorys_camera]

Food insecurity is definitely going to ratchet way up over the next six months. I don't know about fertilizer access, but the rising price of truck diesel fuel is definitely going to be factored into supermarket prices, and consumers are going to feel it.

[mallorys_camera]

My teeth are getting loose from all those kicks!

[mallorys_camera]

Yeah. Human beings are a failed experiment.

[mallorys_camera]

Yes, Trump is a champion backpedaler. Here's hoping.

[fuzzilla]

**Trump is capable of looking at a disaster and calling it victory, and calling it a victory lets him stop. I'm hoping for something like that.**

Probably the most realistic best case scenario, yeah.

[asakiyume]

I'll take it!